Wisconsin Right Now

Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday touted her support for legalizing marijuana, explicitly tying the issue to her effort to get support from Black voters in a social media post that drew immediate pushback.

Harris posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, a call to legalize recreational marijuana and specifically said the policy would help Black men.

“Breaking down unjust barriers that hold Black men and other Americans back and making sure Black Americans have opportunities to succeed as the market place takes shape,” Harris said, adding that "no one should go to jail for smoking weed."

One commenter on X remarked, “All Black People DON'T smoke weed...Other races smoke weed too; I don't think you understand how insulting this post is!”

The more common pushback, though, came from critics pointing out that Harris actively prosecuted marijuana-related crimes during her time as attorney general in California.

Former Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard helped end Harris’ presidential campaign in 2020 by bringing up this very issue at the Democratic debate.

“Now Senator Harris says she’s proud of her record as a prosecutor and that she’ll be a prosecutor president, but I’m deeply concerned about this record,” Gabbard said at the debate.

“She put over 1,500 people in jail for marijuana violations and then laughed about it when she was asked if she ever smoked marijuana,” Gabbard continued, referring to Harris laughing when admitting she smoked weed during an interview on The Breakfast Club.

Fact-checkers later pushed back on that number, but Harris' tough-on-crime stance while in California and her prosecution of marijuana-related offenses is indisputable.

Harris comments come after The Center Square Voter’s Voice poll showed that Harris is getting less support from likely Black voters than former President Barack Obama, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, and President Joe Biden.

As The Center Square previously reported, Harris received 79% support among Black voters in the national survey while former President Donald Trump received 16% support from likely Black voters.

Harris’ 79% support is significantly lower than the three former Democratic presidential candidates, which could be a factor in the very close presidential race.

Obama received 95% of the Black vote in 2008 while former Secretary of State and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton received about 91% support in 2016, and Biden received 92% support in 2020.

In an apparent effort to close the gap, Harris also posted on Monday about “creating an opportunity agenda for black men,” another attempt to court the demographic.

The post also said Harris would “provide 1 million loans that are fully forgivable up to $20k for Black entrepreneurs and others to start a business” and “support education training, and mentorship programs that lead to good-paying jobs for Black men, including pathways to become teachers.”

She also pledged to “protect cryptocurrency investments so Black men who make them know their money is safe” and “launch a national health initiative focused on the illnesses that disproportionately impact Black men.”

Obama chided Black men in a speech last week for their hesitancy to support Harris.

​​“Now, I also want to say that that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers,” Obama said, referring to the lower support for Harris among Black men.

Texas Department of Public Safety troopers working through Gov. Greg Abbott’s border security mission, Operation Lone Star, continue to arrest “special interest aliens,” primarily men from countries of foreign concern. That includes Iran, a U.S. State Department designated State Sponsor of Terrorism.

Texas DPS first sounded the alarm about increasing arrests of SIAs last month, The Center Square first reported.

In the past week, DPS troopers have arrested dozens of SIAs, Texas DPS Lt. Chris Olivarez said in a series of social media posts.

SIAs are noncitizens who, based “on an analysis of travel patterns,” are “known or evaluated to possibly have a nexus to terrorism” who “potentially poses a national security risk to the United States,” the U.S. Department of Homeland Security explains. Having an SIA designation does not necessarily mean the individual is a terrorist, but their travel pattern “indicates a possible nexus to nefarious activity (including terrorism) and, at a minimum, provides indicators that necessitate heightened screening and further investigation,” DHS says.

On Oct. 11, DPS troopers apprehended 165 foreign nationals in Quemado, outside of Eagle Pass, after they illegally entered Texas from Mexico. Among them were 14 identified as SIAs – citizens of Iran, Egypt, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

President Joe Biden recently extended executive orders declaring multiple national emergencies citing national security threats related to Iran, ISIS, Syria, Afghanistan and the DRC, The Center Square reported.

In a video posted by DPS, apprehended Iranian SIAs stated their names and information about themselves in English. They said they are from Iran, they came through Mexico and were going to Florida, Las Vegas and San Francisco, respectively.

DPS troopers also arrested 57 illegal foreign nationals for criminal trespass – citizens of Peru, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Guatemala, and Ecuador, Olivarez said.

On Oct. 13, Texas DPS troopers recovered 29 “unaccompanied alien children” (UACs) between the ages of 10 and 17. They all claimed to already have sponsors in New York, California, Colorado, Florida, Maine, and other states, he said.

On Oct. 14, Texas DPS troopers also recovered 23 UACs including 16 boys and seven girls, he said. Olivarez published a video of the UACs who stated their ages in Spanish.

All UACs are handed over to Border Patrol, which processes them and turns them over to the supervision of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Refugee Resettlement. HHS ORR is rife with allegations of abuse, the non-vetting of sponsors, losing track of more than 100,000 UACs after they are released into the US, among other allegations prompting multiple congressional investigations. A House Committee also recently subpoenaed the head of HHS to provide information about UACs.

One Democratic U.S. senator from Oregon blocked an attempt to halt funding for organizations accused of abusing UACs; 158 House Democrats voted against deporting violent offenders, including child sex offenders.

One Texas group, Alliance for a Safe Texas, has called for action in Texas since the majority of UACs are housed in HHS-contracted facilities in the state, The Center Square first reported.

So far, through OLS, Texas DPS troopers have rescued over 900 UACs, The Center Square reported. Border Patrol agents are also continuing to rescue drugged UACs believed to have been abused and smuggled into the country.

On Oct. 14, Texas DPS troopers also apprehended a large group of illegal border crossers on private property in Maverick County. They included family groups, the 23 UACs and 22 SIAs – citizens of Egypt and Turkey, Olivarez said.

Last month, troopers apprehended SIAs from Turkey, all single military age men, The Center Square reported.

Last month, U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Georgia, filed a bill to require the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to publish data on SIAs who are apprehended illegally entering the U.S., The Center Square first reported.

SIA data collected by DHS has never been made public under any administration.

There have been at least 73,000 SIAs arrested under the Biden-Harris administration, Greene said at a congressional hearing. The number “does not include the potential special interest aliens among the 2 million known gotaways,” she said.

She’s referring to illegal border crossers who intentionally evade capture, don’t return to Mexico or Canada, run when pursued by law enforcement and aren’t apprehended, or their tracks are found by law enforcement and reported, officials have explained to The Center Square. They now total over 2 million since fiscal 2021, the greatest number reported under any presidential administration, The Center Square first reported.

Just 22 days from Election Day, Republican Donald Trump is the betting favorite over Kamala Harris 54.1%-44.9%.

Six times the favorite has changed since the vice president became the clear choice of Democrats in the wake of President Joe Biden quitting. The latest difference is the largest since the first of those shifts.

“We are going to defeat Kamala Harris, and we are going to usher in a new golden age of American success for citizens of every race, religion, color, and creed,” Trump said on social media Sunday.

Harris, campaigning Sunday in North Carolina, told her audience, "As president it is my pledge to you that I will always fight for all the American people, and together we will build a brighter future for our nation."

Trump has a 20-point platform, led by a return to enforcement of securing national borders. He chastises the Democrats for inflation that at 2.4% remains higher than when he left office in January 2021, yet is considerably lower than the 9.1% high of June 2022 under the watch of President Joe Biden. Energy independence and “manufacturing superpower” are also in his top five.

Harris, second in command to Biden, says her top issues are an opportunity economy and lower costs for families. Tax cuts for the middle class, affordable rent and home ownership, and growth by small businesses also top her list. She favors a return to Roe v. Wade on abortion.

Trump is favored on all seven of the RealClear sources to generate the betting average. Points Bet (57%) is strongest on the Republican, followed by Betsson (56%), Bwin (55%), Bovada (54%), Smarkets (53%), and Polymarket (52%) and Betfair (52%).

At the time of the first assassination attempt of Trump, he was running against Biden and his difference soared to plus-48.5 that July day. It was still over plus-42 a day before Biden quit and Harris assumed preferred candidate choice of Democrats.

The betting favorite changed to Harris on Aug. 8, went back to Trump on Aug. 21 as the Democratic National Convention closed though only for two days, came back to Trump again on Aug. 29, went back to Harris when they debated Sept. 10, and returned to Trump’s favor on Oct. 6.

In many states with early in-person voting, polls open this week.

The National Border Patrol Council, the union representing roughly 16,000 Border Patrol agents nationwide, endorsed former President Donald Trump for president while criticizing President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

On Monday, the union issued a statement, saying, “On behalf of the 16,000 men and women represented by the National Border Patrol Council, we strongly support and endorse Donald J. Trump for President of the United States.”

They did so after endorsing Trump at a Prescott, Ariz., rally on Sunday where Trump was joined by many Border Patrol leaders.

"If we allow border czar Harris to win this election, every city, every community in this great country is going to go to hell. The untold millions of people unvetted, who she has allowed into this country that are committing murders, rapes, robberies, burglaries and every other crime will continue to put our country in peril,” NBPC’s new president, Paul Perez, said.

"Only one man can fix that. That is Donald J. Trump. He has always stood with the men and women who protect this border, who put their lives on the line for the country."

The union also said border experts want Trump to be president “so that the border can be secured without compromise. Only the drug cartels and Democrats want an open border – that’s what Border Czar Harris has given them and will continue to do in the future.”

The union’s leaders for the last nearly four years have joined Trump at border events in Texas and Arizona. After Trump announced he was running for reelection, the NBPC’s former president, Brandon Judd, endorsed him and joined him at campaign events.

The NBPC has repeatedly criticized the border policies of Biden and Harris, arguing they created the border crisis. The union has also repeatedly fact checked claims they’ve made, including refuting that it had ever endorsed Biden for president.

Prior to dropping out of the presidential race, during the June presidential debate, Biden claimed, “the Border Patrol union endorsed me, endorsed my position.”

In response, the union posted a statement on X, saying, “To be clear, we never have and never will endorse Biden.”

During the Sept. 10 presidential debate between Harris and Trump, Harris made comments related to “the importance of sovereignty and territorial integrity,” which the union criticized. “She apparently only cares about other countries' sovereignty b/c when it comes to America, she and President Biden opened up the border, erasing any semblance of sovereignty,” it said.

After Harris made claims about her border policies at a campaign event in Douglas, Ariz., the union said, “VP Harris claimed that she played a role in increasing Border Patrol Agent overtime pay. This couldn't be further from the truth. As with all things border related she was no where to be found when we needed her.”

In response to Harris claiming that Border Patrol agents needed more resources, the union said, “We have apprehended over 8 million illegal immigrants over the last 4 years and now you realize we need more help 38 days before the election.

“Vice president Harris has ignored the border problem she created for over three years. She goes down there for 20 minutes for a photo op and decides to repeat some of the things the NPBC has said before. But again, where has she been the last 3 1/2 years?”

During the debate and at campaign rallies, Harris has repeatedly claimed she would sign a Senate border bill into law, which she says allocated funding to hire 1,500 Border Patrol agents. She and others claim Trump killed the bill.

On Sunday, Trump vowed to immediately ask Congress for funds to hire an additional 10,000 Border Patrol employees, give existing agents a 10% raise, and create a $10,000 retention and signing bonus, if elected president.

“I will always stand with the incredible men and women of Border Patrol,” he said. “They have a tremendous shortage because they haven’t been treated right. They want to do their jobs. You know, they consider it bad treatment when you’re not allowed to do your jobs.”

The Senate border bill does the opposite of what Harris and other proponents claim, according to the bill language, including allowing an unlimited number of illegal foreign nationals into the country due to numerous exceptions. The bill would codify existing policies created by DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for which he was impeached in February, which Republicans argue is facilitating the ongoing crisis.

Texas officials also argued the bill would codify mass migration and nullify state sovereignty.

U.S. Senate Democrats and Independents ultimately didn’t support it; Senate Democratic leadership never brought it to a vote.

U.S. Senate Democrats have also sought to distance themselves from Biden-Harris border policies as local communities grapple with increased crime and social services costs associated with illegal border crossers. Senate leadership also refused to consider a border bill passed by the U.S. House.

Despite Harris’ recent campaign claims, while a U.S. senator, she sought to reduce funding and staff of federal border agencies, including seeking to eliminate U.S. Customs and Immigration Enforcement, the agency responsible for removing some of the most dangerous criminals.

Most registered voters, 59%, support a federal ban on transgender procedures such as puberty blockers and gender reassignment surgeries for minors, a new national poll found.

The strongest support for a federal ban came from registered Republicans (82%), while the lowest amount of support for it came from registered Democrats (36%). Independents polled offered majority support for a ban, with 56% in favor.

The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights between Oct.2-4 and surveyed 2,560 registered voters. The margin of error for the aggregate sample was ±2.1%.

According to the poll, although both sexes favored a federal ban on transgender procedures for minors, men were more likely to favor it, with 63% in favor compared to 56% for women. Among the ethnicities polled, “others” favored a ban the most at 63% compared to 61% for Whites. Of Black registered voters polled, 46% favored a ban, while 32% were opposed and 22% were not sure.

Among age demographics, the categories most in favor of a federal ban were 45-54 and 54-65, both of which polled at 61%, while 18-34 were the least in favor, albeit still at a 52% majority of them still supporting banning the procedures for minors.

Although voters with and without college degrees both favored a federal ban by more than 50%, those without degrees favored it more at 61%, while 55% of voters with a college degree supported a ban.

Voters with children supported a ban more than those without, at 61% to 52% respectively.

Geographically, rural voters favored a ban more than suburban or urban voters, at 64% compared to 57% and 58% respectively.

Regionally, the Northeast was least supportive of a federal ban, with 51% in favor. The South was the most supportive at 61%, while the Midwest favored it at 60%. Voters in the West favored a ban by 59%.

Transgender procedures on minors are now banned in 25 states, including states such as Ohio which, according to data from the nonprofit Do No Harm, was one of the top in the nation for procedures and procedures per capita. According to Do No Harm’s data, released last week, at least 13,994 transgender procedures were performed on minors across the U.S. between 2019-2023, The Center Square reported.

Do No Harm is a nonprofit group of physicians and other medical professionals that gets its name from the Hippocratic oath: "First, do no harm." According to its website, Do No Harm is "fighting to curtail the unscientific and individually harmful practice of so-called 'gender affirming care'" for children.

In an email to The Center Square, David Byler with Noble Predictive Insights, wrote that "on many issues surrounding trans rights and students or youth, the GOP has public opinion on their side. There’s a reason that, when you look at GOP ads, they are constantly hammering this and other related issues. And some prominent Democrats are pushing out moderate, rather than left, messages."

He added that "Republicans know that trans issues are a strong social issue for them – and after getting hit hard on abortion so many times since Dobbs, they want to make sure they’re pushing back and finding social issues that work for them."

(The Center Square) – Wisconsin saw a 2.1% increase in its general sales and use tax collections in the first quarter of the new fiscal year in numbers released Thursday.

The state collected more than $1.32 billion after collecting $1.29 billion during the same period last year. The numbers represent collections from July through September.

Overall, the state collected an adjusted amount of $4.15 billion in general purpose revenue during the first quarter, up from $3.97 billion in the first quarter of last fiscal year.

Wisconsin collected $21.3 billion last fiscal year, ending in June, after collecting nearly $21 billion the year before.

The numbers represent a continuation of a trend of slowed growth in sales tax revenue for the state in the post-COVID timeframe.

The state collected $2.73 billion in state sales taxes over the first five months of 2024, a 0.4% increase over the $2.72 billion in the same five months the year before, according to Wisconsin Policy Forum.

“The retail sector contributes the largest amount in sales tax revenues by far,” the group said in July. “In calendar year 2023, Wisconsin reported a total of $7.22 billion in sales tax revenues; $3.47 billion of that – or 48.0% – came from retail. Consequently, even though growth in the retail sector was limited (0.6%), that growth accounts for almost the entirety of sales tax revenue growth in Wisconsin during the first five months of 2024.”

Corporate taxes were up 2.8% year over year for the first quarter of the new fiscal year while excise tax was down 2.7% and individual income tax collections were up an adjusted 6.7%.

(The Center Square) – The Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty filed a lawsuit for several parents of students against the Milwaukee Public School District for failing to provide the required 25 school resource officers in its schools.

Wisconsin’s Act 12 requires MPS to have 25 SROs in place by Jan. 1, 2024, during normal school hours.

“I think MPS needs to take their input from the parents and put those safety resource officers in the school,” MPS parent Charlene Abughrin said in a statement. “Otherwise, it’s just reckless and dangerous behavior left unchecked. No discipline, no consequences. What are we teaching our kids?”

The WILL lawsuit cited several times this year when the SRO requirement was publicly discussed at board meetings or by district leadership, which acknowledged the requirement has not been met.

“The actions and inactions of the board and the statements of these board directors all make clear they are aware of their plain duty under state law, but are deliberately not complying with, the requirements of Act 12,” the lawsuit says.

Wisconsin will be sending an estimated $174 million to communities in 2025 for Act 12 personal property aid.

“Failing to provide SROs has left students vulnerable and has forced Milwaukee police officers—through 9-1-1 calls—to pick up the slack when schools need assistance,” WILL Associate Counsel Lauren Greuel said in a statement. “MPS’ failure to follow this law harms the entirety of Milwaukee by not only disregarding the safety of students but also by draining the resources of MPD that are needed elsewhere.”

Washington state is among the 10 states in the nation where gender reassignment procedures performed on minors occur the most, according to data from Do No Harm, while Seattle’s Children’s Hospital was listed among the top hospitals in the nation.

Do No Harm is a nonprofit group of physicians and other medical professionals that gets its name from the Hippocratic oath: "First, do no harm." According to its website, Do No Harm is "fighting to curtail the unscientific and individually harmful practice of so-called 'gender affirming care'" for children.

The group’s database shows that from 2019-2023, in Washington state there were 772 puberty or hormone blockers patients and 330 gender reassignment surgery patients age 17 and younger, making it third in the nation for total state patients for gender reassignment treatment on minors.

According to the 2020 U.S. Census, there were 1.68 million Washington residents under the age of 18, putting the rate of gender reassignment at one per 1,564 minor residents.

Do No Harm defines puberty blockers as “synthetic hormones which are used to postpone puberty in children” and gender reassignment surgery as “a cosmetic medical procedure meant to alter a person’s appearance to look like or mimic the opposite sex; these procedures cannot change a person’s sex. Types of sex reassignment surgeries include procedures such as ‘top surgery,’ ‘bottom surgery,’ and facial feminization/masculinization surgeries.”

According to the nonprofit’s database, the number of patients for both puberty blockers and surgeries increased from 2019 to 2022, but fell dramatically in 2023; however, both remained at levels above 2019.

The most prominent medical location for gender reassignment treatment was Seattle’s Children’s Hospital, which between 2019-2023 had a total of 246 hormone puberty blocker patients and 50 surgery patients. A total of $1.4 million was billed for these services, though this data does not include patients who paid partially or fully out of pocket.

Seattle Children’s Hospital has a gender clinic and describes itself as “the only pediatric academic medical center with fellowship-trained plastic surgeons who provide gender-affirming surgery in our region," though genital surgeries are restricted to those 18 or older.

"For other surgeries, timing depends on many factors, like the patient’s stage of puberty and how surgery fits with the rest of their gender-related healthcare,” the website states. “A typical age is mid-teens or older."

According to its website, they accept new patients ages 9 to 17.75 “at the time of referral who have already started puberty,” while those 17.75 or older and patients who have not yet started puberty are “directed to community resources.” Parental or guardian consent is required for treatments unless the patient is an emancipated minor.

The gender clinic also partners with the hospital’s autism center “to coordinate care for children and teens with autism and related social challenges.”

Earlier this year, doctors from Seattle Children’s Hospital released a paper arguing that “withholding GAC (gender affirming care) is harmful to children and amounts to state-sanctioned medical neglect and emotional abuse.”

Also earlier this year, Seatle Children’s Hospital reached a settlement with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton after his office sought to obtain medical records from the hospital under the suspicion it was providing gender reassignment services to minors traveling from Texas, where those services are prohibited. As part of the settlement, the hospital withdrew its business license from Texas.

The Family Policy Institute of Washington is a religious organization that "serve as the bridge between culture and government – interfacing with churches, pastors, government leaders, and media to articulate a clear vision for healthy families in our state."

CEO and President Brian Noble told The Center Square that the number of gender reassignment procedures "are actually lower than I thought they would be," but also said "one of the things that I believe that is causing great anxiety within our young people is to remove the foundation of the scientific evidence of who they are. It’s not surprising to me that the Covid lockdown produced the harvest of certain people questioning their gender.”

He added that “this report is about minors. We’re talking about nonadults who can’t even drink a beer or get a tattoo making these decisions.”

Seattle Children's Hospital did not respond to request for comment on Do No Harm's data or its nationwide ranking.

The State Attorney General's Office also did not respond to request for comment on the effects of gender reassignment procedures on youth mental health; the AGO recently filed a lawsuit against TikTok claiming that it is harmful to youth mental health.

(The Center Square) – Wisconsin Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde said in a 2012 interview that he was in favor of raising the retirement age for Social Security, something that is the focus of a new political ad from incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

Hovde clarified his thoughts to the Milwaukee Press Club and on social media this week with a statement saying that his proposal won’t impact those nearing retirement or currently receiving Social Security.

Instead, his proposal applies only to those under the age of 40 because the Congressional Budget Office predicts that Social Security will have negative cash flow by 2033.

“If we don’t act now, Social Security will no longer be able to pay out full benefits,” Hovde wrote.

Hovde added he has never proposed to cut Social Security either, instead proposing to put Social Security in a trust so it cannot be used for other government spending.

“This should have happened from its beginning,” Hovde wrote. “For decades, Congress has treated Social Security like a piggy bank, pulling from it to fund their pet projects. This has to stop.”

Baldwin and Hovde have a scheduled debate at 7 p.m. on Oct. 18 in Madison.

Hovde spent plenty of time Tuesday discussing national debt and ending overspending by the federal government.

He did, however, say that he is for spending federal funds to replace lead pipes, a topic that President Joe Biden was in Milwaukee discussing on Tuesday. Biden announce the Environmental Protection Agency is supplying $2.6 billion to replace lead lines.

“Reality of it is, there’s not a lot of lead pipes anymore because typically a pipe will erode over a particular amount of time and they replace them,” Hovde said. “So I think it’s making … trying to act like it’s a bigger issue.

“The amount of lead pipes in this country are very small, but I think we should get rid of all of them.”

The Wisconsin Policy Forum wrote in 2023 that there are more than 150,000 lead service lines in Wisconsin, affecting at least 92 communities in the state. The group said that 37,000 lead lines were replaced or turned off between 2018 and 2023.

(The Center Square) – Wisconsin will send an estimated $1.56 billion to local governments in shared revenue in 2025.

That total includes $770 million for county and municipal aid, $281 million for supplemental county and municipal aid, nearly $174 million for Act 12 personal property aid, $98 million for exempt computer aid, $97 million for utility aid, nearly $76 million for personal property aid on locally assessed machinery and tools, $58 million in expenditure restraint incentive program aid and $10 million in video service cable provider aid.

The estimates include a $23.6 million increase in county and municipal aid based on last year’s sales tax collections.

“I’m excited to see how the results of our historic shared revenue increases are going to help support communities and families across Wisconsin,” Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers said. “We’re helping make sure our local communities can meet basic and unique needs alike, including investing in fire and emergency services, fixing local roads, expanding affordable housing and transportation, ensuring kids and families have clean and safe water and parks, supporting local public health and libraries—whatever those needs may be.”

The shared funds are mainly general, unrestricted aids that can be used for any activity approved by the local government.

The supplemental county and municipal aid cannot be used for administrative services and must be used for law enforcement, fire protection, emergency medical services, emergency response communications, public works, courts and transportation.

The Act 12 funds start in 2025 and are meant to compensate local governments for manufacturing personal property becoming tax exempt.

Former President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over rival Vice President Kamala Harris when it comes to the issues voters are most concerned about: inflation and illegal immigration.

That's according to the results of The Center Square's Voters' Voice Poll, conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, and released Wednesday. The poll is one of only six national tracking polls in the United States.

Harris is gaining ground on Trump on the third top issue: the economy and job, thought Trump still holds the trust advantage among voters.

Likely voters are more concerned about inflation (47%) and illegal immigration (40%) than the economy (32%). Other top issues for voters were abortion rights (26%), crime (22%), climate change (18%), healthcare access (18%), government corruption (16%) and national debt and government spending (14%).

David Byler, of Noble Predictive Insights, said Harris has largely gotten a pass on inflation, an issue voters associated more closely with President Joe Biden.

"What you see now is a much tighter race between Harris and Trump than it ever was between [Trump] and Biden," he said. "Biden was largely blamed for rising prices and for rising inflation."

Despite being the vice president during Biden's term, when inflation spiked to a 40-year high, voters are more optimistic about Harris, Byler said.

"Bottom line was that voters aren't holding Harris quite as responsible for inflation as they held Biden, and this is one of her big points of improvement over Biden as a candidate," he said. "[Harris] is improving on Biden's numbers against Trump on economic issues like inflation and like taxes, and that's a big explainer for why she's got the Democratic base back and why this has gone from Trump winning the popular vote to Harris narrowly leading."

After the U.S. Supreme Court sent the abortion issues back to the states with the Dobbs decision, Republicans lost some interest in the abortion issue, at least compared to other priorities, Byler said.

"So immigration is really one of the key salient social issues with an economic angle to it as well," he said.

Trump has made illegal immigration a top priority for his campaign as he seeks a second term in the White House. He has called Harris' border policies soft and blamed her for an influx of people from other countries, more than 14 million since Biden-Harris took office, The Center Square reported. Trump has also promised tough border policies and mass deportations.

Trump never succeeded on mass deportations during his first term. On both issues, Congress will have its say, which could blunt or block Trump's policies if the former president is re-elected, depending on who controls the U.S. House and Senate.

Illegal immigration has gotten more attention as border states such as Arizona and Texas have sent busloads of migrants to cities around the country. Texas has bused more than 102,000 migrants to sanctuary cities including New York, Chicago and Denver, among others.

Harris opposed many border security measures Trump implemented, including building a border wall. As "border czar" under Biden, and as the administration reversed many of Trump's security measures, Harris has overseen a massive surge in illegal immigration.

Total illegal border crossings surpassed 14 million from the beginning of their term through September, by far a record compared to any other administration, The Center Square reported. Since replacing Biden at the top of the ticket, Harris now says those who illegally cross the border should face "consequences." She now also says she supports building a border wall, a reversal from her past position.

Noble Predictive Insights conducted the poll from Oct 2-4, 2024. The sample included 2,560 respondents comprised of 1,135 Republicans, 1,162 Democrats, and 263 True Independents (Independents who, when asked if they leaned toward one of the major parties, chose neither). Of the full sample of registered voters, 2,290 were qualified as “likely voters.”

The poll weighted each party – Republicans, Democrats, and True Independents – independently. Additional weighting variables include age, region, gender, education, and race/ethnicity.

The margin of error was +/- 1.9% for registered voters and +/-2.1% for likely voters.